← 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
Fire Crux HybridTier 1
at 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 12 | 8-3-1 | 70.8% | 65.6% | 65.4% | +6.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 72.3% | +14.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.0% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 60.7% | +5.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 10.9% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 34.0% | -11.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.7% | +8.3 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Spurn to Ash, Scry the Skies, Flame Sweep. Losers more often ran: Incarnate Majesty, Fast Cure, Disintegrate.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Meltdown | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |